According to new data from Counterpoint Research, surging demand for the iPhone 17 lineup is set to push Apple past Samsung by the end of 2025 - marking the company’s first return to the top spot since 2011.

Counterpoint has said iPhone shipments are expected to grow 10 per cent next year, more than double Samsung’s projected 4.6 per cent.

The sales boost for Apple is reportedly driven by three converging forces, those being a blockbuster upgrade cycle, strong momentum in the U.S. and China, and a more favourable global climate.

The iPhone 17 series - launched in September - has delivered double-digit year-over-year sales growth in both markets, helped by easing U.S.-China tensions and a weaker dollar that has made Apple devices more competitive in emerging regions.

A huge replacement wave is also hitting at the perfect time, as hundreds of millions of phones bought during the pandemic boom are now due for an upgrade, and that includes 358 million second-hand iPhones purchased between 2023 and mid-2025.

These are users who, Counterpoint noted, tend to re-enter the Apple ecosystem with new hardware.

Looking ahead, analysts expect Apple to widen its lead, with a foldable iPhone reportedly slated for 2026 and a more affordable iPhone 17e both designed to capture new segments.

Meanwhile, a major 2027 design overhaul could ignite yet another supercycle.

The broader smartphone market will grow modestly at 3.3 per cent in 2025, but Apple is projected to take a commanding 19.4 per cent share, cementing a leadership position it is forecast to maintain through 2029.

And Apple’s own guidance hints the momentum is real: the company is on pace for a near-record $140 billion holiday quarter.